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A truism in strategic studies holds that warfare is highly complex and unpredictable. What appears to be a stable and predictable military balance can be suddenly overthrown by innovative doctrines or cunning strategies. This paper attempts to fill a perceived gap in strategic studies analysis with respect to US-China naval conflict scenarios. The author is concerned that most Western analyses on the subject tend to be simplistic and unduly optimistic. The approach in this paper follows a "Chinese style" in that it examines the Asia-Pacific strategic balance as a series of interacting military campaigns. The results of the analysis yield that the US retains a strong advantage in certain warfare domains, to be sure. Yet, the assumption that the US military has a decisive advantage in the relevant scenarios becomes dubious in light of the potentially devastating blow against US and allied bases that could be made by PLA conventional missile forces. Moreover, a Chinese advantage in the use of offensive mine warfare, when combined with China's ability to prevent US and allied aerial anti-submarine forces from flying, could combine to roll back, or at least significantly limit, Washington's heretofore decisive undersea advantage. (China Q/GIGA)

This survey of official and quasi-official Chinese-language naval literature provides some new insights regarding Beijing's evolving strategy in the South China Sea. Most importantly - and contrary to conventional wisdom - a surprising diversity of viewpoint is evident in Chinese naval circles that likely reflects the wider debate among Chinese strategists more generally. Thus, it is important to note that a major theme in many of these writings is the need for Beijing to adopt a cautious and compromising policy. Other themes revealed in this literature include a distinct threat perception, as well as concern that China could be cut out of the resource benefits of the South China Sea. Finally, a troubling pattern of escalation is evident in the literature with writings after mid-2010 assuming a disturbingly vitriolic character, perhaps even suggesting that Beijing's military policy in the South China Sea could take an ominous turn in the future. The final point should raise some major questions regarding the present direction of US policy in the region. As the US is looking to "step up its game" in the South China Sea area, Washington (and other regional actors) must realize that the "game" may develop in a variety of destabilizing ways. (Contemp Southeast Asia/GIGA)

This survey of official and quasi-official Chinese-language naval literature provides some new insights regarding Beijing's evolving strategy in the South China Sea. Most importantly -- and contrary to conventional wisdom -- a surprising diversity of viewpoint is evident in Chinese naval circles that likely reflects the wider debate among Chinese strategists more generally. Thus, it is important to note that a major theme in many of these writings is the need for Beijing to adopt a cautious and compromising policy. Other themes revealed in this literature include a distinct threat perception, as well as concern that China could be cut out of the resource benefits of the South China Sea. Finally, a troubling pattern of escalation is evident in the literature with writings after mid-2010 assuming a disturbingly vitriolic character, perhaps even suggesting that Beijing's military policy in the South China Sea could take an ominous turn in the future. The final point should raise some major questions regarding the present direction of US policy in the region. As the US is looking to "step up its game" in the South China Sea area, Washington (and other regional actors) must realize that the "game" may develop in a variety of destabilizing ways. Adapted from the source document.

The People's Liberation Army's lack of recent combat experience leads Chinese defence analysts to a major, systematic effort to look outward in the pursuit of insights about the emerging strategic environment. In Chinese military literature, the 1982 Falklands War has achieved noteworthy prominence. The PLA's objective and sophisticated understanding of the war in the South Atlantic may help explain both specific Chinese military approaches toward the analogous Taiwan situation and wider trends in Chinese military development. (Survival / SWP)

Explores China's historical role in Central Asia and its post-Sept. 11 position, core strategic interests of sovereignty and economic development, and both competitive and cooperative tendencies, and implications for US policy in the region.